USDCHF remains stuck in a box as the key date for markets nears

Fundamental Overview

The USD got a bit of a boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another high.

Overall, the market is still pricing between two to three rate cuts this year and the sentiment remains tentative as we approach the Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2^nd.

On the CHF side, as a reminder, the SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected bringing the policy rate to 0.25%. There was no signal of the end of the easing cycle, but the central bank is now in a good position to just pause for a long time with no need to go back to ZIRP or even NIRP. The market doesn’t see any more rate cuts.

The focus is now on next Wednesday when the US will unveil the tariffs plan and we can then move forward from there without the high uncertainty that is prevailing at the moment.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that USDCHF remains stuck in a 100-pips range between the 0.8760 support and the 0.8860 resistance. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance and the trendline to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more conviction and push into the 0.90 handle next.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an even smaller range on this timeframe with support around the 0.88 handle. Market participants will likely continue to play this range until we get a breakout on either side but waiting for April 2nd would be a better idea given the uncertainty and the potential for surprises. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report.