Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it’s no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Atmos Energy?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Atmos Energy (ATO – Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.03 a share, just 30 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 7, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $3.03 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.92 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Atmos Energy has an Earnings ESP of +3.77%. Investors should also know that ATO is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’ve reported.
ATO is part of a big group of Utilities stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Consolidated Edison (ED – Free Report) as well.
Slated to report earnings on May 1, 2025, Consolidated Edison holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it’s Most Accurate Estimate is $2.38 a share 24 days from its next quarterly update.
For Consolidated Edison, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30 is +3.25%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, ATO and ED could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They’re Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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