Why MongoDB Stock Lost 34% in March

Shares of MongoDB (MDB 0.79%) took a dive last month as the maker of NoSQL database software gave disappointing guidance for 2025 and got caught up in the broad market sell-off on fears around waning consumer confidence and the trade war.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock finished the month down 34%. As you can see from the chart, the stock tumbled on the earnings report and stayed down from there, slumping toward the end of the month.

MDB data by YCharts

MongoDB sees a slowdown ahead

MongoDB actually beat estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report, but guidance was the real problem, as the stock tumbled 27% on March 6 after the report came out.

Revenue in the quarter rose 20% to $548.4 million, which easily beat the consensus at $519.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share rose from $0.86 to $1.28, which was well ahead of the consensus at $0.67.

Its cloud-based product MongoDB Atlas continued to deliver strong revenue growth, up 24%, and made up 71% of revenue in the quarter, as management noted better-than-expected consumption of Atlas.

However, investors were disappointed with its guidance for 2025, as the company called for revenue of $2.24 billion-$2.28 billion, up just 12.4% at the midpoint, a notable slowdown from 19% growth in 2024. That was also below the analyst consensus at $2.32 billion. On the bottom line, the company sees adjusted earnings per share of $2.44-$2.62, which was down from $3.33 in 2024 and worse than the consensus at $3.39.

MongoDB also announced a $200 million stock buyback initiative to offset the dilutive impact of its acquisition of Voyage AI, a creator of embedding and reranking models for AI applications.

Following the report, several Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock or lowered their price targets, noting the disappointing forecast for the current year.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s next for MongoDB?

Management said the slowdown in growth in fiscal 2026 — this year — is related to a more limited cohort eligible for multiyear deals than in the last two years. It also sees margins headwinds due to the loss of $50 million in multiyear revenue and due to investments in R&D.

Those headwinds could lift in fiscal 2027, but the sell-off on the news is understandable. MongoDB is still unprofitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, and its forward P/E is roughly 60, based on guidance for adjusted earnings.