Jamie Dimon Just Issued a Dire Warning to Investors

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that a U.S. recession is a probable event.

Dimon also anticipates persistent inflation resulting from the ongoing trade war.

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Jamie Dimon, famous financier and chief executive at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), might have taken a moment today to celebrate his company’s first-quarter 2024 earnings beat. However, it appears that Dimon’s overall mood has been cautious lately, as evidenced by his dire warning about the economy and financial markets.

Tariffs are on investors’ minds, and Dimon certainly has something to say about this topic. As of April 11, the U.S. and China have reciprocally imposed import tariffs exceeding 100% on each other. Amid this tense backdrop, Dimon seeks to put investors on notice as the path forward remains highly uncertain.

JPMorgan Chase’s Q4 2024 earnings grew 9% year over year to $14.64 billion — not too shabby. Yet, Dimon knows full well that this growth reflects a pre-trade-war environment and the outlook for 2025 is cloudy at best.

As I always say, look at a company’s actions just as much as its words. It speaks volumes that JPMorgan Chase is allocating 75% more capital toward covering potential loan losses; obviously, the company’s management is concerned that borrowers won’t be able to repay their loans.

Without mentioning President Donald Trump directly, Dimon cited Trump’s tariffs against China and other nations as a headwind to lenders like JPMorgan Chase. Banking “clients have become more cautious amid an increase in market volatility driven by geopolitical and trade-related tensions,” Dimon observed.

This isn’t to suggest that Dimon is entirely pessimistic. He reassured investors that “America is still a pretty good place in a turbulent world” and that “this is still the most prosperous nation on the planet.”

At the same time, the JPMorgan CEO is bracing for a wide range of outcomes this year, including the not-so-positive ones. “As always, we hope for the best but prepare the firm for a wide range of scenarios,” Dimon stated.

Dimon has multiple ways to communicate with JPMorgan Chase’s stockholders and with the investing public as a whole. Among them is his annual letter to his company’s shareholders — and this year’s letter bears an unmistakably cautionary tone.

Notably, Dimon made it crystal clear that he envisions a tariff-driven bump in the U.S. inflation rate. “As for the short-term, we are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products,” he wrote in JPMorgan’s 2025 shareholder letter.

Indeed, Dimon seems to see inflationary signs everywhere he looks lately. Most of what Dimon sees “in the future is inflationary,” he declared; the inflation signals include not only tariffs but also “continued high fiscal deficits” as well as the “remilitarization of the world and the need for infrastructure investment, including the green economy.”

Other inflationary factors, Dimon contended, include the need for infrastructure spending and global supply chain issues. These factors, along with military spending, could “lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher [interest] rates than markets currently expect,” Dimon proposed.

Presumably, Dimon is connecting sticky inflation with interest rates because the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated in order to combat tariff-fueled inflation. This and other considerations, Dimon concluded in his shareholder letter, have prompted JPMorgan Chase’s management to “remain very cautious.”

If there’s one word that scares investors more than “inflation,” it’s the r-word: “recession.” It’s not a word that big-bank executives use lightly, but Dimon is now preparing financial market participants for recessionary scenarios.

In JPMorgan’s shareholder letter, Dimon pinpointed a connection between higher tariff-driven consumer prices and a potential recession. “The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,” Dimon pointed out.

Dimon took this discussion to a whole new level, though, in a recent interview. In a conversation on Fox Business’ Mornings With Maria program, Dimon starkly proclaimed, “I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome.”

You won’t hear this type of statement every day from a banking executive of Dimon’s caliber. It’s a dire warning to investors, not only of JPMorgan Chase but across all stock market sectors.

Again, Dimon isn’t completely pessimistic, and he claims to be “taking a calm view.” On the other hand, Dimon fears that the fallout from the trade war “could get worse if we don’t make some progress here.” That’s an eye-opening message from a renowned market expert, and without a doubt, some investors will heed Dimon’s warning and position their portfolios accordingly.

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