Are Delta’s Earnings a Good Omen for U.S. Stocks?

Markets often look to airlines for clues about the health of the economy. Now that U.S. stocks have been beaten down, any clues about the economy today are both timely and valuable. So Delta Air Lines‘ (DAL 23.41%) recent quarterly report is worth a closer look.

When the company reported quarterly results this week and pulled its full-year guidance, it could’ve easily sparked concern. But looking past this ominous detail tells quite a different story. Delta’s results and guidance for the current quarter might actually reinforce a bullish theme — the incredible resilience of the U.S. consumer and, by extension, the economy.

Even though Delta withdrew its full-year guidance on Tuesday amid economic uncertainty, its shares jumped following its quarterly report. Below, I’ll take a look at why Delta shares popped and, more importantly, why the report may be a positive indicator of the United States’ ability to weather potential storms ahead as tariff negotiations continue to rile the market.

Resilience in a difficult environment

Delta’s operating revenue in its first quarter of 2025 rose 2% year over year, the company revealed in its earnings release on Wednesday. Additionally, earnings per share came in at $0.46 for the period, beating analysts’ average forecast of $0.39.

Notably, however, the airline lowered its forecast for its first-quarter revenue and earnings per share (EPS) last month. So the first-quarter per-share profit figure wasn’t as good as the company originally anticipated.

However, things start to get more upbeat when you look beneath the hood. While Delta’s anemic first-quarter revenue growth was unimpressive, the underlying revenue mix tells a more bullish story.

“Through the quarter, diverse, high-margin revenue streams showed resilience, improving over prior year and approaching 60 percent of total revenue,” said Delta president Glen Hauenstein in the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Notably, premium cabin revenue jumped 7% year over year, continuing to outpace main cabin growth.

Additionally, Delta said its international revenue rose in the mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis. Both of these figures show that Delta’s more loyal, high-margin core customers are doing quite well.

Further, Delta remains upbeat about these customers going into the current quarter. Management guided for flat year-over-year revenue growth for Q2 but said it’s seeing “continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international partially offsetting Domestic and main cabin softness.”

Two reasons to be optimistic about U.S. stocks

Delta’s results highlight two specific reasons investors shouldn’t count out the U.S. economy yet.

First, the results show a resilient consumer. The company is seeing sustained strength in premium travel, loyalty programs, and international demand — all signs that U.S. consumers, especially at the higher end, are still spending. Additionally, guidance for current-quarter revenue to be about flat, compared to the year-ago quarter — even as the U.S. is in the middle of tariff negotiations at an unprecedented scale — shows surprising overall resilience considering the circumstances.

Second, Delta’s solid Q1 results and management’s commentary about the rest of the year show how U.S. businesses can adapt to a changing environment. The company, for instance, has been managing costs well, with non-fuel unit cost growing slower than expected during Q1. Further, considering the uncertainty in the economy today, Delta is reducing its capacity growth in anticipation of weaker demand — a move that will help it keep costs in check.

While investors should keep an eye on the developing situation with tariffs, Delta’s display of a resilient consumer and entrepreneurial agility are two reasons to be hopeful about how the U.S. could fair this year.