TLDR
Table of Contents
- Dogecoin (DOGE) has fallen by 22% from recent highs, with $37.15 million in liquidations across exchanges
- Technical breakdown below a long-standing ascending channel has some analysts predicting a possible 59% drop to $0.060
- Daily active addresses and social media engagement for DOGE have been declining
- Recent 7% rebound from $0.13 to around $0.15 shows potential resilience
- Historical cycle patterns suggest possibility of significant gains by end of 2025
Dogecoin has experienced a dramatic price decline in recent days, falling 22% from Saturday’s high of $0.171. The popular meme cryptocurrency is now testing key support levels as traders debate whether this represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a larger downtrend.
The price slide resulted in substantial liquidations across major exchanges. In the last 24 hours alone, $37.15 million worth of DOGE positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for 85.78% of these losses ($31.87 million).
Bitcoin’s simultaneous 10.68% drop contributed to the negative market sentiment, suggesting broader market forces at play rather than DOGE-specific factors.
On-Chain Activity Shows Concerning Trends
Data from analytics platform Santiment reveals troubling metrics for Dogecoin’s network activity. Daily active addresses have fallen to levels maintained since January, following brief upticks in November and mid-March that quickly tapered off.
Social media engagement has also dried up. The social dominance trend continues to decline, with March not being the most bearish month despite heavy price losses.
Social volume reached new lows in April. This decreased attention suggests that capital flows may continue to leave the market unless the price trend reverses.
The funding rate has moved into negative territory after a week of bullish efforts. This indicates conditions favorable for sellers, though historical patterns show DOGE tends to bounce higher in the short term when funding rates turn negative.
Technical indicators on the daily chart show steady selling pressure since December. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been slowly but consistently falling.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained below the neutral 50 level since mid-January, which typically signals an ongoing bearish trend.
Price Targets and Support Levels
Key support levels from October 2024 at $0.131 and $0.102 are now the next price targets for Dogecoin. The $0.131 level has been tested in recent hours and could potentially yield a bounce to the $0.154-$0.164 range.
However, analysts caution that despite the possibility of a 15% bounce, the overall trend remains firmly bearish in the near term.
Some technical analysts have identified an even more concerning pattern. DOGE recently broke below a long-standing ascending parallel channel that had guided its price since 2018. This breakdown, coupled with rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $0.16395), suggests increased bearish momentum.
One analyst noted that the next major support lies at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, around $0.06167. If this level fails to hold, a drop to $0.060 could be possible, representing a 59% decrease from recent highs.
Adding to market uncertainty, a whale recently transferred 300 million Dogecoin (valued at approximately $41.7 million) to Binance exchange.
Signs of Potential Recovery
Despite these bearish signals, there are some indications of possible recovery. Dogecoin has rebounded 7% in the last 24 hours, climbing from a daily low of $0.13 back to around $0.15.
Crypto trader Trader Tardigrade has identified a bullish divergence on the daily chart. This pattern, where price makes lower lows while the RSI forms higher lows, suggests weakening selling momentum and potential price reversal.
The $0.135 level has historically acted as both support and resistance. If DOGE can sustain support at this level, analysts suggest the possibility of recovery. However, if this support fails, further drops to $0.12 or even $0.10 may occur.
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin’s weekly chart structure shows some bullish undertones. The price currently sits above the Ichimoku cloud, which provides stable support.
The 100- and 200-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have undergone a bullish crossover, generally associated with medium to long-term uptrends. A bullish hammer candlestick formation provides additional support for a potential upward move.
Market participants should watch the $0.18 level; reclaiming this price point could signal a short-term recovery. Further resistance levels lie at $0.25 and $0.30.
Cycle theorists point to historical patterns suggesting potential for explosive growth. Looking at monthly charts, Dogecoin appears to be approaching an important area based on previous fourth-year cycle histories.
In both 2017 and 2021, DOGE saw explosive gains after reaching similar points, finishing those years 37 times above their annual opening prices. If this pattern repeats, it could set up DOGE for substantial gains by the end of 2025.
Some optimistic analysts have even forecasted a cycle extension that could push DOGE to $11.71 by December 31, 2025, though such predictions remain highly speculative given current market conditions.
As the market stabilizes following recent volatility, Dogecoin’s strong rebound has rekindled investor interest and sparked discussions of a potential breakout, despite the technical breakdown from its long-term ascending channel.
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