- Goldman Sachs raises credit spread forecasts amid tariff risks, cuts S&P 500 target
- Standard Chartered forecasting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025
- Toyota has met union pay rise request in full
- 16 analyst forecast for the US CPI, headline and core, for February 2025
- European Central Bank President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane speak Wednesday
- Nissan agrees to a JPY 16,500 average monthly wage increase for 2025.
- Australia rules out retaliatory tariffs after Trump moves forward with steel duties
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2324)
- Canada’s energy minister says will respond quickly if tariffs come into play
- BMO: February CPI Data Key for Fed’s Inflation Outlook and Rate Cut Prospects
- USD/JPY knocking on resistance
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says higher long term rates reflecting market views on economy
- Financial Times – Toyota considers exporting from UK to US to ease impact of Trump tariffs
- Japan data – February PPI flat at 0% change m/m (expected -0.1%) & +4% y/y (expected 4%)
- Canada warns of oil export restrictions as trade tensions with U.S. rise
- Japan’s Major Firms to Offer Strong Wage Hikes for Third Year
- UBS downgrades China’s tech sector, citing rally-driven revaluation and tariff risks
- Deutsche Bank not so bearish US equites: Market selloff lacks hallmarks of deeper downturn
- New Zealand February retail sales data +0.3% m/m and -4.2% y/y
- Yemen’s Houthi terrorists say they’ll resume attacks on Israeli ships immediately
- US House of Reps has passed the spending bill to avert government shut down. On to Senate.
- Trump says he may push tariffs even higher than 25%
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 11 Mar: Tariff "whack-a-mole" sends markets up and down
- Marko Kolanovic says S&P 500 can dip into the 4000s in the case of a Trump recession
- Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build larger than expected
- Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 12 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- JP Morgan have raised the probability of a US recession, citing Trump extremism
It was a day of subdued ranges across much of major FX. In summary the USD is a few points stronger pretty much across the board. Everyone’s favourite right now, EUR, was pegged back a little. As I post is dribbling just under 1.0900.
Data from Japan for February wholesale inflation showed flat m/m but a still solid 4% rise y/y. USD/JPY has had a quiet one, stuck around 148.00 for much of the session.
The US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund the government through until September. The bill now faces a vote in the Senate. 60 votes are required. Timing for the vote has not yet been scheduled. Government funding is set to run out on March 14.
Oil steadied somewhat despite the private inventory survey showing a significantly larger headline build than was expected. The official government data is due Wednesday morning out of the US.
China’s offshore yuan (CNH – see under the chart for more info if you need) hit its highest since mid-November last year. I’ve noted a number of times that China has not responded to Trump’s massive 20% increase in tariffs by allowing the yuan to weaken. I’ve suggested its because they are holding that in reserve as a negotiating tactic. I might be wrong – comments welcome!
- CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from its daily reference rate.
- CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
Financial Market Newsflash
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