Natural gas-based exchange-traded fund United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG – Free Report) has gained 7% over the past month and is up 11% over the past week (as of Dec. 24, 2024). Leveraged natural gas ETF ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL – Free Report) has surged 21.3% over the past week. The rally wasdriven by forecasts of colder weather and trader expectations for higher demand in January.
Technical Resistance and Potential Price Targets
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) is currently trading at a level of $3.80 an is hovering around a key technical resistance at $3.994. A breakout above this level could push prices further, potentially reaching the $4.30 target. However, should the resistance hold, prices might face a retracement back to support levels around $3.647 and $3.367, as quoted on FX Empire.
Short-Term Weather Outlook: Mixed Signals for Demand
Between December 24-29, the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast should experience a cold weather, with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s, increasing heating demand. However, other regions of the United States saw milder weather, ranging from 50°F to 70°F, which has led to a softening in overall demand.
A warming trend is expected to continue into the weekend, reducing heating demand temporarily and potentially curbing further price gains in the short term.
January Cold Front: A Potential Catalyst for Renewed Demand
Despite the milder outlook in late December, traders are focusing on the forecast for early January, which calls for a return to colder-than-normal conditions. If this cold snap materializes between January 2-6, it will likely boost demand for natural gas.
Global Demand and Geopolitical Factors Bolstering Prices
Natural gas prices have also been boosted by stronger global LNG demand and geopolitical factors, including reduced Russian gas supply to Europe. U.S. LNG exports are gaining momentum, particularly after President-elect Trump’s pledge to issue more export permits, which has led to firms prioritizing exports over domestic sales.
U.S. Storage and Export Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 125 Bcf draw in natural gas storage for the week ending December 13, marking the fifth successive weekly draw. Although U.S. storage levels remain slightly above last year’s levels, demand is expected to increase as exports rise. The market is also anticipating a rise in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 124.4 Bcf/d to 130.2 Bcf/d next week, according to LSEG.
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