A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Macy’s (M – Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Macy’s due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Macy’s Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Comparable Sales Decline Y/Y
Macy’s reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate but the bottom line lagged the same. Both revenues and earnings decreased from the year-ago quarter’s reported figures. Comparable sales (comps) fell on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace.
More on Macy’s Q3 Results
Macy’s reported adjusted earnings of 4 cents per share, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7 cents. Also, the bottom line decreased from adjusted earnings of 21 cents in the year-ago period.
Net sales of $4,742 million beat the consensus estimate of $4,729 million. However, the top line dipped 2.4% from the year-ago quarter. Comps fell 2.4% on an owned basis and 1.3% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis from the prior-year quarter.
Macy’s ongoing business comps, including both go-forward locations and digital platforms across all nameplates, decreased 2% on an owned basis and 0.9% when including owned, licensed and marketplace channels.
Net credit card revenues were $120 million, down 15.5% from the year-ago period. The metric represented 2.5% of sales, down 40 basis points from the year-ago quarter. Macy’s Media Network revenues increased 13.9%, reaching $41 million, driven by a rise in advertisers and campaign volume. The metric represented 0.9% of sales, up 20 basis points from the year-ago quarter.
Update on Macy’s Brand Performance
Comps across Macy’s declined 3% year over year on an owned basis and 2.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis. Fragrances, dresses and men’s and women’s active apparel performed well.
At Bloomingdale’s brand, comps increased 1% on an owned basis and 3.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis, driven by strong performance in contemporary apparel, beauty and digital channels.
Comps at the Bluemercury brand rose 3.3% on an owned basis, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of comps growth. Customers remained highly receptive to the extensive skincare product offerings.
Insight Into Macy’s Margins & Expenses
The gross margin declined 60 basis points to 39.6%, whereas our estimate was pegged at 40.3%. The merchandise margin decreased 70 basis points due to product mix and the transition to cost accounting. However, this decline was partially offset by efficiencies in the company’s fulfillment network and a reduction in shipped sales volume.
The company reported selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses of $2.06 billion, up 1.2% from $2.04 billion in the year-ago period. The growth in SG&A expenses was driven by strategic customer-facing investments, partially offset by ongoing cost-control measures.
As a percentage of total revenues, SG&A expenses increased 150 basis points year over year to 43.5% on lower net sales.
Macy’s reported an adjusted EBITDA of $273 million, down 17.5% from an adjusted EBITDA of $331 million in the year-ago quarter. We note that the adjusted EBITDA margin was 5.8%, down 100 basis points year over year.
Macy’s Financial Snapshot: Cash, Inventory & Equity Overview
M ended the fiscal second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $315 million, long-term debt of $2.77 billion and shareholders’ equity of $4.15 billion. Merchandise inventories rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. In the third quarter of fiscal 2024, Macy’s used net cash in operating activities of $30 million.
Asset sale gains totaled $66 million, marking an increase of $61 million compared to the same period last year, driven by the monetization of non-core assets as part of the company’s Bold New Chapter strategy. These gains reflect the acceleration of certain asset monetizations from the fourth quarter to the third quarter.
A Peek Into Macy’s Q4 Guidance
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Macy’s anticipates net sales in the range of $7.8-$8 billion. On a 13-week basis, net sales are expected to be down 1% to up 1.5%. Other revenues are expected to range from $206 million to $216 million, with credit card revenues estimated to be between $138 million and $148 million.
Gross margin rate is projected between 35.3% and 35.7%, which includes an 85-basis point adjustment for delivery expenses due to accounting revisions.
Adjusted earnings per share are expected to range from $1.40 to $1.65, which includes an estimated 17 cents adjustment for delivery expenses. Inventories are projected to remain flat year over year, and asset sale gains are estimated at approximately $32 million in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Macy’s FY24 Outlook
For fiscal 2024, the company provided an updated financial outlook, reflecting slight improvements in sales projections and a more optimistic view of comparable sales performance. These adjustments highlight the company’s efforts to refine its expectations amid evolving market conditions. However, adjusted earnings are forecasted to be lower than prior projections, reflecting anticipated challenges compared to the previous fiscal year.
Net sales are projected to be $22.3-$22.5 billion, a slight improvement from the previously stated $22.1-$22.4 billion. Notably, the company reported net sales of $23.1 billion in fiscal 2023. Other revenues are expected to range from $680 million to $690 million, with credit card revenues between $500 million and $510 million. The outlook for comparable owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace sales on a 52-week basis has also been adjusted, with a projected year-over-year decline of 1% to be flat, narrower than the previously stated range between a drop of 0.5% and 2%.
Gross margin is projected between 38.2% and 38.3%, down from the prior adjusted outlook of 38.6-38.8%, which includes a 40 basis point adjustment for delivery expenses. SG&A expenses are expected to be between 36.3% and 36.5% of total revenues. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of total revenues is projected to range from 8% to 8.4% compared with the previous outlook of 8.2-8.7%, which also included a 35 basis point adjustment for delivery expenses.
Asset sale gains are forecasted at $135 million, with total asset monetization proceeds of $275 million. Capital expenditures for the year are expected to total approximately $895 million, reflecting a continued focus on strategic investments and cost control measures.
Adjusted earnings per share are envisioned to be $2.25-$2.50 for fiscal 2024 compared with the prior estimation of $2.34-$2.69, which incorporated 21 cents adjustment for delivery expenses. This implies a decline from the $3.50 earned in the prior year.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -17.13% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Macy’s has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Macy’s has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Financial Market Newsflash
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